Uncertainty quantification of radiation-hydrodynamics simulations is a fast-growing field within the ICF community. Understanding the role of interactions between model components is crucial for identifying key sensitivities and additionally serves to inform prioritization for further code development. In particular, the impact of uncertainties in the modelling of coupled phenomena such as conduction, plasma viscosity and radiation transport, each of which may vary in fidelity during different phases of target operation, are thought to be crucial for designing and diagnosing ICF systems. Recently, we undertook a preliminary assessment to modelling uncertainties of flux-limited conduction in the uniaxially driven system studied by Derentowicz et al. [Derentowicz et al., J. Tech. Phys. 25, 135 (1977)]. Our results indicated sensitivity to ionic heat flow between the fusion fuel and metallic anvil, which is quasi-nonlocal and occurs where material properties are often of limited accuracy. This submission presents a multivariate expansion of Ref., covering a large options hyperspace sampled using a space-filling Latin hypercube design. The results not only confirm the importance of flux-limited conduction, but also point to uncertainties in hydrodynamic interface tracking as one of the most influential aspects of our modelling. This raises the intriguing possibility that this platform may be able to constrain predictions of advanced interfacial diffusion models.


D. A. Chapman, R. Bordas, N. Chaturvedi, N. A. Hawker, M. P. Read, D. H. Vassilev and N. Joiner




63rd Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Plasma Physics (2021)